Houthi Group Announces Escalation of Attacks and Expansion to the Mediterranean Sea: Implications for Peace Efforts Analyzed by Political Researchers

The Houthi group, recognized globally as a terrorist organization, has declared the initiation of the fourth phase of their escalating attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Mediterranean Sea. In a statement made by the group's military spokesperson, Yahya Sarea, it was revealed that this phase entails targeting all ships bound for 'Israel' within the Mediterranean Sea range of their weaponry. The announcement specified that the implementation of this decision commences immediately upon its proclamation, irrespective of the ship's nationality or destination.

This announcement follows closely after the Houthi leader, Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, stated on May 2 that preparations for a fourth round of escalation were underway in response to the Israeli war on Gaza.

The United Nations and its Special Envoy to Yemen recently announced the disruption of efforts by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to end the Yemeni war due to rising tension in the Red Sea and recent developments in the Middle East. These factors have impeded the progress of negotiations, despite previously reaching a roadmap to resolve the Yemeni crisis.

To gain insight into the impact of this escalation on the peace process in Yemen, Barran Press engaged in discussions with political researchers. These experts identified a correlation between the Houthi group's escalation and the Iranian regime, as well as the broader international conflicts in the region.

Addressing the Houthi group's capabilities, Dr. Adel Dushayla, a political researcher, emphasized that their actions are not isolated but rather influenced by their close association with the Iranian regime. Dushayla explained that Iran's presence extends throughout the region, encompassing Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf, and Yemen. Within this context, the targeting of international navigation towards Israel becomes part of a larger axis, with the Houthis playing a role in executing these operations. According to Dushayla, the escalating situation reflects the ongoing conflicts among various axes, including the Western axis led by the United States, the Global South axis comprising emerging countries like India and African nations, and the Chinese -Russian axis with its regional ally, Iran. Dushayla further underscored the strategic significance of Yemen's location overlooking the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, a vital area for international navigation.

In terms of the impact on the peace prospects in Yemen, Dushayla expressed skepticism, stating that the peace process has been stagnant for some time. Despite recent attempts to revitalize the political process, such as the movements of the UN envoy to Yemen or Saudi Arabia's desire to implement a deal mediated by Oman, Dushayla believes the current deal remains unrealistic. He highlighted that Yemeni forces, including separatist movements and political parties supporting legitimacy, are unlikely to accept it. Moreover, the announced escalation by the Houthis is expected to further delay any discussions regarding the proposed roadmap.

Regarding the Houthi group's military capabilities and their ability to reach the Mediterranean Sea, Dr. Adel Dushayla reiterated their connection to a major axis spanning from the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. He emphasized that the party conducting military operations is inconsequential. Dushayla acknowledged the Houthi group's possession of ballistic missiles, drones, and other weapons acquired over the past decade through smuggling or direct relations with Iran. He concluded that the Houthis' alignment with Iran in the region has transformed them into a formidable ally, enabling Iran to provide them with effective military capabilities to counter regional and international forces.

In a recent development, Mohammed Al-Walas Buhaibah, the head of the Red Sea Center for Political and Media Studies, described the Houthi group's announcement of escalation in the Mediterranean Sea as a "political, intelligence-driven media declaration under Iranian directives." Buhaibah revealed that a new Iranian general named Ibrahim Jalili, considered one of the Revolutionary Guard's prominent intelligence leaders is leading the Houthi group. According to Buhaibah, the group itself is merely a "comprador," following orders from Iran. He anticipates intensified targeting of international shipping vessels in the coming days, all of which are connected to Iranian agendas. These actions serve to convey regional and international messages and settle scores beyond Iranian borders.

The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, expressed regret on April 28th for the disruption of Saudi Arabia's efforts to end the Yemeni war. Guterres did not explicitly name the party responsible for obstructing peace efforts, but his Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, indicated earlier that tensions in the Red Sea and recent developments in the Middle East have impeded the momentum of negotiations after the adoption of a roadmap to resolve the Yemeni crisis. Grundberg expressed disappointment at the lack of progress and urged the region and the international community to move away from a "zero-sum mentality."

Since November 2023, the internationally recognized Houthi group has been escalating its attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Mediterranean Sea. In their latest announcement, they declared the initiation of the fourth phase of attacks, specifically targeting ships bound for Israel within the Mediterranean Sea range of their weaponry. This decision is irrespective of the ship's nationality or destination. The Houthi group's actions are seen as part of a larger axis influenced by the Iranian regime, reflecting ongoing conflicts among various regional and international powers.

Political researchers suggest that the Houthi group's association with Iran extends throughout the region, including Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf. The targeting of international navigation towards Israel is viewed as part of a broader strategy within this axis. The strategic location of Yemen overlooking the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, a crucial area for international navigation, adds to the significance of the Houthi group's actions.

Regarding the peace process in Yemen, experts express skepticism about its prospects. Despite recent attempts to revitalize the political process, the peace process has been stagnant for some time. The current deal is deemed unrealistic, as various Yemeni forces are unlikely to accept it. The Houthi group's announced escalation in the Mediterranean Sea is expected to further delay discussions on the proposed roadmap.

The Houthi group's military capabilities, including ballistic missiles and drones, have been acquired over the past decade through smuggling or direct relations with Iran. Their alignment with Iran has transformed them into a formidable ally, enabling them to counter regional and international forces effectively. Researchers highlight that the Houthi group's military operations are orchestrated under Iranian directives.

The announcement of escalation in the Mediterranean Sea is seen as a political and intelligence-driven media declaration under Iranian guidance. It is believed that the Houthi group follows orders from Iran and acts as a proxy for Iranian agendas. The targeting of international shipping vessels serves to convey regional and international messages and settle scores beyond Iranian borders.

The disruption of Saudi Arabia's efforts to end the Yemeni war has been regretted by the United Nations Secretary-General. Tensions in the Red Sea and recent developments in the Middle East have impeded the momentum of negotiations, hindering progress despite the adoption of a roadmap to resolve the Yemeni crisis. The international community is urged to move away from a "zero-sum mentality" by the UN Special Envoy to Yemen.