What if the Gulf Viewed Yemen Like Europe Viewed Poland?

Why hasn't Yemen been cultivated as a natural extension of the Gulf? This question, often pondered by Yemeni and Gulf writers and officials alike, resonates with Yemenis who struggle to rebuild their lives next to the world's wealthiest region.
This comparison arose after a discussion in Switzerland with a Polish/Swiss education consultant. Reflecting on Europe's support for a politically and economically fragile Poland post-Cold War, he stated simply: "Poland is part of Europe's security and was ready to be seen; Europe was ready to believe her." This insightful remark stuck with me.
In the early 2000s, Europe strategically redefined its approach to Eastern Europe. Instead of treating these nations as mere spheres of influence or temporary markets, it recognized their potential as vital extensions of its security and economy. Poland, despite its devastated post-Cold War state, transformed into a burgeoning economic power within two decades, fueled by massive European investment (€170 billion) and integration into the European value chain. Today, as the Gulf faces critical challenges on its southern borders, a crucial strategic question emerges regarding Yemen: Why hasn't its potential been similarly invested in as a geostrategic opportunity?

The divergence in these experiences lies not in resources or location, but in vision. Despite its 1990s political and economic vulnerabilities, Poland was treated as a partner to be developed, not a problem to be contained. Brussels didn't await stability in Warsaw to offer support; instability itself became a catalyst for integration. Conversely, Yemen, despite its strategic Bab al-Mandab location, untapped natural wealth, and proximity to affluent economic blocs, has remained largely outside long-term regional investment considerations. The pressing question isn't whether the Polish model can be replicated in Yemen, but why the political will to do so is absent, and what price the Gulf will ultimately pay for treating its southern neighbor as a fleeting security concern rather than a strategic partner.

Poland: How Europe Turned Challenge into Opportunity

When Poland joined the European Union in 2004, its unemployment rate exceeded 19%, its GDP barely reached $255 billion, and 17% of its population lived below the poverty line. However, Europe approached these figures as symptoms of potential development, not as obstacles. Massive investments were injected into infrastructure, with the European Commission alone spending €64 billion between 2007 and 2013 on modernizing roads and railways. Fourteen special economic zones were established to attract foreign investment, transforming Poland into a hub for car manufacturing in Europe, attracting companies like Volkswagen and Toyota. Crucially, the opening of borders integrated two million Poles into the European labor market, reducing unemployment to 2.9% by 2024.
The key here wasn't just the amount of money, but the philosophy of investment. European funds were tied to structural reforms: modernizing the judicial system, enhancing transparency, and supporting civil society. The result was a radical transformation of Poland's state structure, turning it into a frontline of European security rather than a weak point. As former European Commission President Romano Prodi summarized the vision: "Poland is not a burden on Europe, but an insurance for its future."
Yemen: Untapped Resources, Unutilized Location
On the other side of the world, Yemen possesses assets that could surpass what Poland had: its location on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which 12% of global trade passes, qualifies it to be a global logistics center. It also boasts a 2,500-kilometer coastline, natural resources like oil, gas, and minerals, and a young population with 70% under the age of 25. However, this potential remains trapped by conflict and a lack of vision.
The most prominent example is the Port of Aden, once considered one of the best natural harbors in the world, but now a symbol of neglect. Had it received investments similar to those that transformed Dubai's Jebel Ali Port into a global hub, Aden could have regained its historical status as a gateway between Asia and Africa. Similarly, governorates like Al-Jawf and Marib, which hold vast gas reserves, have not witnessed any major projects despite the nearby Gulf presence. Even the few projects that began, such as the Talal Al-Rayan real estate project in Sana'a (in partnership with Qatar), stalled due to instability and turned into ruins despite half of it being completed at a cost of $600 million.
Remarkably, Gulf states have spent billions of dollars on projects in geographically and culturally distant countries in Asia and Africa, while investment in Yemen has been limited to short-term humanitarian aid. I searched the archives of economic relations between Yemen and the Gulf, not looking for a list of accusations, but for an inspiring model of what could be built when vision is present. Upon closer inspection, the Sana'a University experience stood out. This project, funded by Kuwait in the 1970s, was not just an educational grant but an investment in Yemen's intellect, its generations, and its future. Modern faculties, an integrated campus, libraries, and student housing were built. However, this massive project was not followed up with a plan to strengthen the educational infrastructure further. The result was Yemen's transformation from a strategic neighbor that could contribute to the Gulf's security into an open arena for foreign interventions, as seen with the expansion of Iranian influence through the Houthis.

Why the Gulf's Vision for Yemen Fell Short?

The disparity between Yemen's potential and its harsh reality stems largely from the Gulf states' failure to adopt a long-term strategy, opting for "crisis management" over "opportunity creation." Their focus on security measures, exemplified by the post-2015 anti-Houthi military coalition, overshadowed crucial development initiatives. However, Poland's success demonstrates that economic growth, not military force, is the bedrock of stability.
A significant oversight has been the lack of regional integration. Despite the GCC framework, the Gulf has never proposed a comprehensive integration plan with Yemen, encompassing vital elements like electricity grids, transportation networks, and market unification. Even ambitious Saudi infrastructure projects, such as the King Fahd Causeway and the planned NEOM city, haven't extended to Yemen, despite the mere 50-kilometer separation at the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The Mounting Cost of Neglect
Recent crises have starkly revealed that ignoring Yemen is no longer tenable. The 2019 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the Red Sea shipping disruptions underscore how Yemeni instability directly imperils Gulf security. Moreover, Iran's growing influence is transforming Yemen into a battleground for regional conflicts, a situation that could worsen with shifting global alliances.
Perhaps the gravest consequence is Yemen's descent into a breeding ground for extremism. A 2022 World Bank report indicates that 80% of Yemenis live in poverty, with a third reliant on aid. Such desperation drives unemployed youth to armed groups, as witnessed with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Ironically, the Gulf, having allocated $130 billion to external development projects between 2000 and 2020, directed a negligible amount to Yemen, even though investing in this immediate neighbor would have yielded greater national security benefits.
A Partnership Paradigm: Lessons from Europe and Poland
Europe's engagement with Poland offers valuable insights:
 * Strategic Infrastructure Investment: Allocating just 10% of the Gulf's external investment (approximately $13 billion) could fund a modern Port of Aden, establish vital road networks connecting Yemeni ports to Gulf cities, and create industrial hubs in key areas like Marib and Hodeidah.
 * Integrated Human Capital Development: Leveraging the 4 million Yemenis working in the Gulf, professional development programs could formally integrate them into the labor market, moving beyond the restrictive Kafala system. Establishing joint educational institutions in Yemen, modeled after the European Polish University of Technology, would cultivate local expertise.
 * Mutually Beneficial Economic Partnerships: Integrating Yemen into Gulf supply chains through strategic investments in agriculture (e.g., a food security project in Tihama), renewable energy (solar farms in Hadramout), and tourism (developing Socotra Island) would foster shared prosperity.
 
Realizing this potential hinges on political will. Even modest initiatives, such as establishing a dedicated Gulf fund for small-scale projects in Yemen (akin to the European Cohesion Fund), could catalyze significant change in relatively stable governorates like Marib and Al-Mahra.

The Gulf's Crossroads: Invest in Yemen or Pay the Price
History may not repeat, but it certainly presents similar junctures. Three decades ago, Europe recognized that neglecting an impoverished Poland posed a potential threat, while integrating it offered a significant opportunity. Today, the Gulf faces a parallel choice: invest in transforming Yemen into a partner for mutual security and prosperity, or bear the escalating costs of decades of neglect.
Opting for partnership demands a bold new vision, one that redefines the relationship from a dynamic of donor and recipient to one of shared destiny. It necessitates acknowledging that building a stable Yemen isn't charity, but a strategic investment in fortifying the very security and economic foundations of the Gulf. Conversely, maintaining the current approach is a recipe for endless drain, as Yemen's crises will continue to destabilize the Gulf through armed conflict, irregular migration, and the spread of extremism.
The crucial lesson from Poland is that stability isn't granted; it's built. The Gulf, having transformed its deserts into smart cities, possesses the capacity to see in Yemen what Europe saw in Poland: a neighbor capable of becoming part of the solution, provided there's the political will to look beyond short-sighted conflicts and envision a more secure and prosperous regional future for all.
Years ago, I witnessed firsthand a fleeting glimpse of this potential. Between 2007 and 2008, traversing post-high school between Shabwa and Haradh, I observed an extraordinary urban revival in Haradh. This border city thrived thanks to the Al-Tuwal crossing, a vital artery connecting southern Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Tens of thousands of travelers, expatriates, and Saudis crossed weekly, transforming Haradh into a microcosm of Yemen's potential when afforded opportunity and basic stability. Investment flowed, markets bustled, and hospitality sectors expanded. Haradh was poised to become a key economic nexus between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, mirroring successful global border city models. Tragically, this progress was obliterated by the Houthi takeover. Haradh, once a promising economic gateway, became a closed military zone, its infrastructure decimated, transit halted, its people displaced, and its burgeoning dream shattered. Today, only ruins remain, stark reminders of the devastating consequences when armed groups seize control and extinguish the prospects for development.

Historically, Yemen has been a strategic passage for those with designs on the Arabian Peninsula. Abraha's march to Mecca, the Portuguese attempts to reach Gulf ports, and Britain's initial regional influence all originated in Yemen. Even in the Ottoman era, Yemen was a crucial gateway in the struggle for control of the Red Sea and the Hijaz.
Nasser's conflict with Saudi Arabia led him directly to support the Yemeni revolution. Arab leftists heavily backed the Yemeni Socialist Party to threaten the Gulf. In the early 1990s, Saddam Hussein envisioned Yemen as the southern gateway for his "Arab Cooperation Council." Even geographically distant Iran only effectively threatened Gulf security after establishing a foothold in Yemen. Transnational extremist groups, too, have exploited Yemen's weak state and fragile development as a haven and transit route.
These historical patterns underscore a critical point: Yemen is not merely a troubled neighbor but a sensitive fulcrum in the Gulf's security equation. The threat doesn't necessarily originate there but often transits through it.
The pressing question remains: why do Gulf states continue to allocate tens of billions to armaments when this historical vulnerability could be addressed with an economic Marshall Plan?

Europe's investment in Poland's stability offers a compelling precedent. Building a stable Yemen is not an act of charity but a long-term investment in the Gulf's own security. The choice is stark: cultivate a partner in Yemen or allow a vacuum to be exploited by adversaries. There is no middle ground.

Yemen's Bleak Reality: Governance Failure, Fragmented Actors, and the Toll of Gulf Neglect

Over the last decade, Yemen has devolved from a fragile state into a complex quagmire of disintegration, where the "state" no longer functions as a minimally sovereign entity. The internationally recognized Yemeni government, under President Hadi until September 2022, failed to translate global recognition into domestic legitimacy or provide effective governance in liberated areas. Its weak performance, both in Aden and Saudi exile, transformed "legitimacy" from a unifying principle into a symbol of multi-layered failure.
The government couldn't establish a firm institutional foothold even in nominally controlled regions like Marib and Hodeidah, where tribal and military alliances superseded state structures. It also failed to deliver basic services like electricity and water, despite over $6 billion in Gulf financial aid between 2015 and 2022, much of which was lost to ghost payrolls and ineffective military spending. This failure wasn't due to resource scarcity but a lack of political vision and rampant corruption that turned the state into a network of personal gain. Internal divisions within the "legitimate" factions further compounded the crisis.
Strikingly, this fragmentation didn't trigger meaningful international pressure for political reform. The global community, including Gulf states, treated the Yemeni government primarily as a counterweight to the Houthis, decoupling military support from essential political and economic reforms. Even Saudi-brokered agreements like the 2019 Riyadh Agreement remained unimplemented. Consequently, Yemenis no longer viewed "legitimacy" as a solution but as part of the problem.
This highlights the Gulf's problematic approach, prioritizing a military solution while neglecting the crucial political and economic dimensions. Despite its importance in countering Houthi expansion, Gulf support lacked an integrated strategy for building an alternative state in liberated territories. No Gulf-funded universities or vocational training centers were established in Aden or Marib, and no significant development projects were launched to tangibly improve lives. Even the over $20 billion in humanitarian aid since 2015 was often mismanaged, failing to reach intended recipients effectively.
This Gulf void in development allowed regional actors like Iran to exploit the situation, bolstering Houthi influence as a means of projecting power, particularly after its regional influence waned elsewhere. These interventions demonstrate rival powers' understanding of Yemen's strategic importance, while Gulf policy remained tethered to a narrow security perspective.
The result is a contemporary Yemen trapped in a cycle of state failure, not solely due to war but also the inability of local elites and regional partners to offer a viable alternative. Yemeni youth, who could be agents of change, are now completely alienated from the state. A 2023 "SAM" survey revealed that 72% contemplate emigration, not just fleeing war but a country offering no education, jobs, or hope.
This reality poses a fundamental question for the Gulf: can Yemen continue to be treated as a transient security concern? Or will the escalating costs of neglect necessitate a strategic overhaul? The European experience with Poland underscores that building stable neighbors requires a multi-faceted vision, integrating human investment with institutional reform. Despite its complexities, Yemen still holds exploitable opportunities, but realizing them demands a radical shift in the Gulf's approach, moving beyond "temporary rescue" towards "strategic partnership." Just as Europe transformed its eastern neighbor from a sphere of influence into a growth partner, the Gulf can see in Yemen not a battleground, but a bridge to African and Asian depth, if the will exists to learn from the past and forge a different future.