Al Jazeera Net, Al-Hurra, Agencies
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political bureau, in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday morning has sparked a crucial question: who will succeed him?
This marks the first time the Israeli military has assassinated the top political leader of Hamas while in office, despite previously killing the movement's founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.
The assassination follows a pattern of targeting key Hamas figures, including Dr. Abdel Aziz Rantisi in Gaza and Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas, in Beirut earlier this year.
Hamas sources have stressed that the movement, which has lost numerous high-ranking leaders, is a well-established organization with functioning institutions. They claim that the assassination will not affect the work of these institutions, including the Central Shura Council (the highest legislative body) and the Executive Committee (the highest political body).
"The assassination policy implemented by the Israeli occupation will not weaken the movement," the sources told Al Jazeera Net. "Hamas has overcome difficult circumstances throughout decades of confrontation with the occupation, emerging stronger each time."
According to press reports, Hamas is expected to quickly choose a successor to Haniyeh, drawing parallels to the aftermath of the assassinations of Sheikh Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi. In both cases, a replacement was chosen within 24 hours.
Leading Candidates
Experts and analysts speculate that Khaled Meshaal might be appointed as an interim leader until the end of the current conflict in Gaza. Following that, elections could be held, potentially leading to the selection of Meshaal, Yahya Sinwar, or another figure.
Dr. Majid Azzam, a Palestinian researcher in strategic affairs, believes that Khaled Meshaal is the strongest contender to take over from Haniyeh, given his current position as head of Hamas's political bureau abroad.
The absence of both Haniyeh and al-Arouri creates a "significant void" within Hamas's external leadership.
Azzam suggests that Meshaal's appointment might be temporary, paving the way for elections. Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by several countries, has a mechanism for conducting elections and holding conferences, with the results expected to be announced at the beginning of 2025.
These elections, held every four years, take place within the movement's organizational regions. They are followed by elections for the Shura Council in each region, which then selects the political bureau, leadership for Gaza and the West Bank, and external leadership. The Central Shura Council then chooses the members and head of the political bureau.
Azzam believes that Meshaal has a strong chance of becoming the head of the political bureau, both in the short term and after the elections. If Meshaal chooses not to stay on, the second most likely candidate is Musa Abu Marzouk.
Palestinian writer and political analyst Ibrahim al-Madhoun believes that there will be no leadership vacuum in Hamas due to its "systematic rotation." While typically there are two deputies to the head of the movement, no one was elected to the position after al-Arouri's assassination earlier this year.
According to Hamas's constitution, each regional head is considered a deputy to the head of the movement. Haniyeh had two deputies: Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and Khaled Meshaal, responsible for the movement's external operations.
While Sinwar is currently occupied with the war in Gaza and managing the political and military campaign, Meshaal, as head of external operations, could be chosen for several reasons. He is responsible for the movement's external operations and was previously the head of the movement, bringing significant experience and organizational weight to the role.
The process of selecting Haniyeh's successor requires a meeting of the Shura Council, which is responsible for enacting laws, approving appointments, and nominating officials. This meeting will be an emergency one, with all indications pointing towards Khaled Meshaal.
Who is Meshaal?
Meshaal, a founding member of Hamas in 1987, is one of the movement's oldest leaders at 67 years old. Born in the West Bank, his family moved to Jordan after the 1967 war. He spent time in Kuwait and Syria before settling in Qatar.
He served as the head of the political bureau until 2017 but continues to reside in Doha. He is currently one of Hamas's key negotiators, particularly regarding the issue of Israeli hostages and ceasefires in Gaza.