Barran Press | Report by Shu'aib al-Ahmadi
Yemeni anxieties have escalated following a series of concessions made by the internationally recognized Yemeni government in favor of the Houthi group, internationally designated as a terrorist organization. The latest concession involves the government's retreat from decisions made by the Central Bank in Aden, the country's temporary capital.
Amidst public criticism of the Yemeni government's backtracking on its decisions, warnings have been raised about the vague details of the UN roadmap, which fails to address Yemeni concerns regarding lasting peace and equal citizenship.
Researchers and analysts who spoke to Barran Press cautioned that the desire of regional powers and the UN alone is insufficient to end the war and establish peace.
Yemeni activists and writers expressed their disappointment with the Yemeni government, the UN, and the influential actors in the Yemeni file for ignoring the nature of the Houthi group, which has a history of gaining concessions through mediation and negotiations while failing to offer any concessions that indicate its intention to end the war and coexist with the Yemeni people.
These concerns are amplified by the ambiguity surrounding the actions of mediators and the silence of the internationally recognized Yemeni government regarding the nature of these actions and the seriousness of the decisions being made in relation to them, which affect the country's future, the lives, and livelihoods of Yemenis.
Further Concessions
Professor Abdulwahab Saleh al-Awj, an academic and political analyst, confirmed that the Houthis are raising the bar for their demands, explaining that they "want the international community and regional sponsors to pressure the legitimate government to make further concessions, in addition to the series of concessions it has already made since the beginning of the war."
Al-Awj, in a conversation with Barran Press, asserted that the Houthi group "will gain from these endless and limitless concessions."
Furthermore, the academic al-Awj pointed out that "Yemen is facing a difficult equation," noting that the Houthis will continue to threaten international navigation and the region, thus continuing to raise their demands.
Regarding the stance of regional powers, he said that "the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has an opinion on getting out of the Yemeni quagmire and focusing on its economic infrastructure and the economic development taking place within it."
Practically, he said that "the situation is deteriorating, with a decline in the Yemeni economy and a collapse in the local currency, while the Houthis are achieving privileges and gains at the expense of the Yemeni people."
The Value of Concessions
Regarding the value of the concessions, the academic al-Awj asked: Will the Houthis accept these concessions? Will they build on them to create future solutions for peace in Yemen? Will they submit to international decisions or the frameworks for a political solution?
He affirmed that all these concessions, in addition to the economic collapse and the failure to export crude oil and gas, "are in the interest of the Houthis." He said: "There is no indication that the Houthis will back down."
Conversely, he said that "there is no indication that the legitimate government will take charge, define its demands, and set a limit on its concessions."
Houthi-Saudi Desire for Direct Negotiations
Abdulwase' al-Fataki, a writer and political analyst, highlighted the preliminary steps taken to prepare for a political settlement, including both public and private talks between the Houthi group and Saudi Arabia, mediated by Oman or conducted face-to-face in Sana'a or Riyadh.
Al-Fataki, in an interview with Barran Press, stated that negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia will continue, whether publicly acknowledged or not. He believes this fulfills the Houthi group's long-standing desire for direct negotiations with Saudi Arabia, excluding the Yemeni government.
According to al-Fataki, these demands "coincided with Saudi Arabia's desire, for about two years, to play the role of mediator between the Yemeni government and the Houthi group." He explained that this was evident in the government's responsiveness and flexibility during negotiations with the Houthi group.
He added that the Yemeni government's submission to international and regional pressure has led some to interpret the retreat from certain decisions, such as the recent Central Bank decisions, as a surrender to threats from the Houthi group.
A Winning Card
Al-Fataki believes that the Yemeni government's popular legitimacy and international recognition as the representative of the Yemeni people are "a winning card in its hand if used wisely."
He also argues that the Houthi group's intransigence and failure to adhere to any agreements reached with the government under UN auspices or regional mediation provide the government with a strong justification for resisting international and regional pressure to make concessions.
He expressed his regret that these concessions "benefit the Houthi group," emphasizing the importance of the government using these justifications to stand firm on its political decisions, exercise its sovereign role, and prevent the militia from challenging its legal and constitutional authority.
The War Card
Professor al-Awj, on the other hand, believes that the government's pressure cards have all been played. He stated that the Houthi group has seized control of numerous decisions, most importantly the seizure of the Central Bank in Sana'a, Yemen's foreign currency reserves, as well as communications, internet, resources in the port of Hodeidah, and more.
Al-Awj believes that the Yemeni government has no remaining pressure cards to confront the Houthi group, except for "declaring war." He justifies this by arguing that it would "shift the equation towards military action," emphasizing that "without it, the government no longer has any leverage; it is losing its legitimacy and existence, and the Houthis have become recognized as a legitimate party by everyone."
Al-Awj stressed the need for the government to "abandon all frameworks, including international decisions, the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference, and the Riyadh Agreements, and move towards a military solution, the only card it has left."
On August 1st, 2024, political parties in Taiz governorate (southwestern Yemen) issued a warning against any negotiations that would lead to the division of national sovereign institutions. They called upon the "legitimate" government to assume its responsibility in leading the liberation effort and restoring the state.
In a statement seen by "Barran Press," the parties criticized the "extreme secrecy" surrounding the discussed roadmap, viewing it as a "confiscation of the Yemeni people's right to determine their political and sovereign destiny."
They stated that the fundamental basis for any settlement "must include the cessation of any legislation and measures that reinforce sectarianism and religious extremism, particularly in school curricula, which aim to erase Yemen's national and political memory from current and future generations."
The political parties warned that any political settlement that does not involve various Yemeni political and civil expressions would be a "settlement that does not represent or reflect the will of the Yemeni people." They urged the internationally recognized Yemeni government to "assume its responsibility in leading the liberation effort and restoring the state through effective national struggle on all fronts and levels, including the negotiation front."
On July 23rd, the UN envoy to Yemen announced that the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the Houthi group had reached several de-escalation measures concerning the banking sector and Yemenia Airlines.
The agreement, according to a statement from the envoy's office, included "the cancellation of recent decisions and measures against banks by both sides and the cessation of any future similar decisions or measures. Additionally, the resumption of Yemenia Airlines flights between Sana'a and Jordan, increasing the number of flights to three daily, and the establishment of daily flights to Cairo and India, or as needed."
The agreement also stipulated that meetings be held to address administrative, technical, and financial challenges facing the company and that meetings begin to discuss all economic and humanitarian issues based on the roadmap.
The statement acknowledged the significant role played by Saudi Arabia in reaching this agreement, affirming the UN's readiness to work with both parties to implement the agreed-upon measures. It further offered to facilitate communication with authorities in Jordan, Egypt, and India.
The Yemeni government promptly implemented its commitments, halting measures taken against banks, while Yemenia Airlines resumed flights from Sana'a to Jordan, Cairo, and India for the first time since 2014.
On December 23rd of last year, the UN announced that the Yemeni parties had reached understandings to commit to a set of measures, including the implementation of a nationwide ceasefire, measures to improve living conditions in Yemen, and engagement in preparations for the resumption of a comprehensive political process under the auspices of the UN.
The roadmap and peace efforts in Yemen were halted by attacks launched by the Houthi group, designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, against commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden, since last November.