Satellite images and numerical weather model maps indicate that a low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea has reached the coasts of Oman, bringing with it the onset of cumulonimbus clouds over southern Oman.

Weather expert Khalid Al-Shatah reported on his Facebook page that the latest satellite images show large rain-bearing cloud masses moving from the northern flank of the tropical low-pressure center toward Oman’s shores. He noted that the system is continuing its westward trajectory toward the eastern Yemeni province of Al-Mahrah.

Al-Shatah explained that the tropical low-pressure system is expected to develop into a deeper tropical depression within the next 24 hours due to favorable atmospheric conditions. However, he cautioned that the system is likely to weaken and dissipate gradually after crossing the shores of Al-Mahrah and Hadramaut.

Direct effects from the low pressure are anticipated in Al-Mahrah on Wednesday and Thursday, with moderate to heavy rainfall expected. The impacts are expected to extend gradually over the following days, affecting the provinces of Hadramaut, Shabwa, Abyan, Marib, Al-Jawf, Aden, Lahij, and most western regions, which may experience moderate to heavy thunderstorms, increasing the likelihood of flash floods.

The National Center for Meteorology and Early Warning reported that the low-pressure system was located this evening in the eastern and southeastern Arabian Sea, over 1,000 kilometers from the nearest point in Yemen. The center also noted that the system is generating low and high clouds in Yemen’s territorial waters, with wind speeds reaching 25 knots, located approximately 600 kilometers from Socotra Island and 680 kilometers from Al-Mahrah.

The center anticipates that the effects of the cloud activity associated with the low pressure will begin to impact Yemen indirectly starting October 16, 2024.

According to ongoing weather model analyses, widespread rainfall is expected in Yemen on Sunday, October 20, particularly in the provinces of Marib, Al-Jawf, Al-Bayda, Dhamar, Taiz, Ibb, Shabwa, Abyan, Lahij, Al-Dhale, Sana’a, Raymah, Al-Mahwit, Hajjah, Amran, and Saada, with heavy to moderate rainfall anticipated.

Heavy to moderate rains are also expected in Al-Mahrah, Hadramaut, and Socotra on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, extending into Shabwa, Abyan, Al-Dhale, Lahij, Taiz, Al-Hodeidah, Hajjah, and parts of Marib and Al-Jawf on Friday and Saturday.