Barran Press - Nawaf AlHemyari
Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election has reignited memories of his previous decision to designate the Houthi group as a terrorist organization, a move that sparked significant controversy in international and human rights circles.
Although the outgoing Biden administration later revoked this designation in the name of peace in Yemen, Trump's return raises questions about whether he will reinstate this decision, especially given the current widespread turmoil in the country.
In this report, "Barran Press" discusses with Yemeni and Arab political experts and researchers whether Trump will change the course of the Yemeni crisis and work to end the conflict in the country, as he promised in his election program, and how he will deal with Houthi threats after Biden's administration failed to stop them.
Decisive Stances
Syrian researcher Mustafa Al-Nu'aimi from the Arab Forum for Iranian Policy Analysis believes that after significant efforts by the Iranian Axis to destabilize international security by targeting commercial and military ships, the American response to this change will be "decisive."
In an interview with "Barran Press," Al- Nu'aimi said that this response will come despite some changes in the American stance regarding the Yemeni crisis and the implications of the Houthis possessing hypersonic missiles.
According to Al- Nu'aimi, "The next phase will be more severe on the Houthis as they are almost completely besieged after the recent American maritime alliances, especially the Prosperity Alliance."
He added, "In the coming days, we will witness more high-level air operations, with the tactics used against the Houthis shifting from preventive strikes to program eradication."
In the event of missile or drone launch preparations, he said, "warehouses and platforms will be targeted, leading to the neutralization of the Houthi militia's military power, which threatens local, regional, and international security."
A Package of Measures
Yemeni political analyst Abdul Basit Al-Fateki said, "When we read Trump's previous policy, we find that at the end of his presidency, he classified the Houthi militia as a terrorist group, which is a firm stance for the American administration against Iran's arms, especially the Houthis."
In a statement to "Barran Press," Al-Fateki added that Trump's administration might escalate its confrontation with Iran's arms in the region and could use a package of escalatory measures.
These measures include "economic escalation, imposing a monitoring policy on the economy that funds the Houthis, such as the banking system, and stopping the port of Hodeidah, which is an economic lifeline for the group, in addition to military escalation, especially if the Houthi militias continue to launch attacks and piracy on commercial ships in the Red Sea."
He believes that the American president might "enhance the U.S. military presence in the Red Sea more and launch more attacks on some sites believed to be missile and drone launch platforms."
He said, "There is a possibility that the Trump administration will provide support to the Arab coalition countries and the legitimate government to limit the Houthi military capabilities," adding that it "will support legitimacy politically and militarily and may give the green light to the legitimate government forces to liberate Hodeidah as a strong pressure card on the Houthi militia to force it into negotiations to sign a peace agreement under the auspices of the United Nations."
Among the Priorities
So far, Al- Nu'aimi says, the vision for a comprehensive solution in Yemen has not crystallized, but "political, military, and economic indicators suggest that there may be a change that will turn the tables on the Houthi militia, especially since it no longer threatens local or regional security but has become a threat to international security."
Al- Nu'aimi believes that "Trump's victory will have a significant impact on restoring the United States' international prestige and its presence in resolving international crises, especially in the Middle East and specifically in Yemen."
Based on this, the researcher sees that the responses will be at the international level, not just regional, and he does not believe that the Houthi group "has the ability to face the new American change that came during Trump's presidency, which will restore the United States' prestige as quickly as possible."
He believes that President Trump has "a clear project to end crises in the Middle East, and based on this, the Yemeni crisis will be among Washington's priorities in the coming phase."
Escalating Operations
For his part, Al-Fateki believes that "if the Houthi group continues its military escalation in the Red Sea, it will provoke Trump's administration's anger and also justify intensifying pressure on the Houthis from several aspects, especially militarily."
He suggests that "Trump's administration will continue escalating military operations and may expand its alliance with the Arab coalition countries or countries interested in the Arab file." He added that this comes with pressures that Trump's administration may exert on the Iranian regime to force the Houthis to sit with the legitimate government to draft a peace agreement in Yemen under the auspices of the United Nations.
No War
Meanwhile, political researcher and analyst Mustafa Naji believes that "the American administration supports a political solution in Yemen, but Houthi interventions in international navigation have placed significant obstacles to this peace, which Saudi Arabia primarily manages."
Therefore, he said, "The opinion has solidified among the coalition countries that there is no longer a prospect for using the war in Yemen and changing the power map, especially since the coalition does not want the return of war and is ready to make concessions that essentially reduce the place and role of the Yemeni government."
Researcher Naji added that "there is great reliance by the legitimate government on the change of the American administration to resume the battle in Yemen and obtain multi-faceted support."
He continued, "But Trump does not want to fight a war for his soldiers, will not bear the burden of a military battle in Yemen alone, and will not go against Saudi Arabia's desire not to return to the battlefield around it, especially in Yemen."
Therefore, he said, "Resuming the war with an American green light without a party to bear the cost is unlikely, especially since the legitimate forces are divided amid the Southern Transitional Council's hesitation about any new political formula that may form with the end of the battle with the Houthis."