A security study released on November 7, 2024, casts doubt on Iran and its regional militias' ability to effectively respond to security and military breaches orchestrated by Israel in the near future.

The report from the Red Sea Center for Political and Security Studies asserts that Iran's security apparatus and its armed affiliates are inadequately equipped to counter foreign threats, despite decades of claims from the Tehran regime—promoted through its media and allies in the Arab world—about possessing significant capabilities.

According to the study, which was obtained by Barran Press, these breaches highlight the Iranian regime's choice to allocate substantial security and intelligence resources toward monitoring and suppressing its own citizens, rather than addressing external threats. It also points to a failure to attract skilled personnel with the necessary expertise and trustworthiness.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh revealed significant flaws within Iran's intelligence and security services responsible for protecting key figures, showcasing their inability to anticipate Israel's reckless targeting of an external figure on Iranian soil.

This failure, the study argues, will preoccupy Iranian officials for years as they attempt to identify and rectify vulnerabilities while preparing for a renewed effort to restore their intelligence capabilities and deterrence against adversaries.

The report also highlights the intelligence failures of Iran's allies in the region, particularly Hezbollah, which led to the sidelining of the party's leadership and the loss of over 4,000 of its members and recruits before the onset of conflict.

It suggests that Iran's strategy of relying on its proxies post-Iraq war is now susceptible to dismantling, indicating that addressing these threats would require Iran to allocate tens of billions of dollars and at least two decades—challenges that demand considerable time and effort.

The study discusses various aspects of the unprecedented intelligence breaches faced by Iran and its affiliates, shedding light on the covert war between Israel and Iran and the implications of these breaches on the Iranian axis, as well as the shifts in deterrence dynamics resulting from them.