Barran Press
Syrian cities are sequentially falling into the hands of opposition forces, either due to the repeated defeats suffered by the Syrian regime in battles or the withdrawal of government troops from their controlled areas.
Since Saturday, opposition forces have made significant gains, expelling government troops from major cities, starting with numerous towns in Idlib, advancing to Aleppo in the north, and then Hama in central Syria. As of this evening, they have reached the strategic outskirts of Homs, Syria's third-largest city.
Should the opposition succeed in taking Homs, the only strategic regions remaining under President Bashar al-Assad's control would be the capital, Damascus, and the coastal area along the Mediterranean Sea.
Simultaneously, local armed opposition groups in southern Syria have taken control of the Nasib border crossing with Jordan, which had previously been announced closed by Jordanian authorities.
In the southern province of Daraa, the birthplace of the protests against Assad's regime in 2011, government forces have evacuated checkpoints in at least three towns following an attack by local fighters on security headquarters in the area.
In eastern Deir ez-Zor, a U.S.-backed coalition led by Syrian Kurdish fighters seized control of the city and the main border crossing with Iraq on Friday after regime forces withdrew from those areas.
As a result, the territory controlled by the Syrian regime has diminished to the capital Damascus, most of Homs province, as well as Latakia and Tartus on the Mediterranean, alongside most towns in the Suwayda and Daraa provinces.
Before the opposition's offensive, the Syrian regime-controlled about 63% of the country's total area; this has now decreased to approximately 50% or less.
The Syrian regime faces challenges in countering the territorial losses to opposition forces, compounded by moves from its primary ally, Tehran, aiming to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
The opposition’s capture of Homs would sever the connection between the capital Damascus and the Syrian coast, where Assad's Alawite sect is concentrated, and where Russian allies have a naval base and an airbase.
Homs, located centrally in the country, lies along a route leading to the capital, just 150 kilometers away. The city has witnessed intense fighting that severely damaged its old neighborhoods before the government regained full control in 2017.
Homs has a Sunni Muslim majority, with Alawites and Christians as minorities. The sectarian violence in the city peaked during the civil war that erupted in 2011.
The administrative boundaries of Homs extend from Lebanon in the west to Iraq in the east, forming a crucial link between northern and southern Syria.
Militarily, Homs houses military colleges, the 11th Division, the 18th Division specializing in tanks, and the Central Command.
If armed factions manage to reach these sites, it will facilitate their control over larger quantities of weapons. Additionally, Homs has a significant Alawite presence that supports the regime; if these individuals receive positive reassurances from the armed factions and remain in their neighborhoods without confrontation, the equation that the regime has relied on for years may shift.
The importance of Homs to the Syrian regime lies in its role as the sole military gathering point in central Syria, facilitating the movement of military units and road networks. Losing Homs would significantly impact the overall military landscape across Syria, particularly surrounding Damascus.