Barran Press
On December 10, 2024, a U.S. report indicated that the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump could signal a return to the "maximum pressure" policy his administration previously imposed on Iran. The report, published by The National News, suggests that the implications for the Houthi movement in Yemen could be severe, particularly following the fall of the Iran-aligned Assad regime in Syria.
The report highlights that attention is turning to how Washington will address the situation in Yemen as part of its renewed approach to the Middle East. It notes that Syria has been a crucial pillar of Iranian regional policy, extending Tehran’s influence to the Mediterranean, and hints that Iran may struggle to adapt to the changing dynamics under a Trump administration.
The Houthis, the report argues, find themselves in an increasingly untenable position as regional conditions shift. Despite having solidified their presence in Yemen since the collapse of the internationally recognized government in Sana'a, the group has not organized significant attacks recently. However, they continue to pose a global threat by launching attacks on international shipping, disrupting trade through the Red Sea.
The report estimates that due to Houthi missile and drone threats, Egypt's revenues from the Suez Canal have decreased by approximately $300 million monthly this year. Attacks have persisted, as evidenced by assaults on two U.S. warships in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last month.
The National's report also discusses the U.S. and its allies’ designation of the Houthis as a global terrorist organization, although this classification has had little real-world impact. It suggests that containment efforts are failing, prompting some Yemenis to call for a more comprehensive approach to stabilize the country.
The report emphasizes that instability in the Red Sea has adversely affected food and fuel supplies to Aden, more so than the UN-supervised route to the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah. It notes that when Israel attacked the port in July, it had just received a significant shipment.
Calls are being made for the Trump administration to adopt a more integrated strategy that goes beyond airstrikes and designations, including political reforms within Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council. The report concludes that it is crucial to reorganize these structures to create more effective governance, as the population in Houthi-controlled areas needs to see tangible benefits from government control to increase pressure for a genuine political solution.
According to the report, decades of Iranian alliance-building in the Arab world have significantly faltered in recent months, raising questions about how long this momentum can be sustained. It is deemed unrealistic to expect the Yemeni stalemate to persist unchanged under current conditions.