International Study: Houthi Capabilities Down 50%, Attacks Compared to Somali Piracy

Monday 1 Aug 2024 |1 month ago
British cargo ship hit by Houthi missile in Red Sea (archive)

Barran Press

The Atlantic Council for Strategic Studies has drawn a parallel between the attacks by the Houthi group, internationally designated as a terrorist organization, in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the acts of piracy that plagued the Horn of Africa in the early 2000s.

In a comprehensive study translated into Arabic by "Bran Press," the international institute asserted that the piracy off the coast of the Horn of Africa, which terrorized international shipping, is mirrored by the current Houthi attacks on international navigation.

The study, which sought to answer the question "What do attacks on maritime shipping mean for the global maritime system?", stated that "as long as shipping lanes exist, commercial vessels will be vulnerable to attacks, especially in times of war."

The study classified the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels as a new form of aggression, starting on November 19, 2023, when forces affiliated with the internationally designated terrorist group Houthi seized the Galaxy Leader vessel.

The study highlighted the dilemma posed by the Houthi campaign against shipping: they target vessels for seemingly geopolitical reasons, backed by a nation-state, but are a militia, not an official government, linked to Iran but not representing Yemen officially.

Meanwhile, the study stated that "the Houthis represent a completely different category from pirates and other opportunistic attackers with no ties to the government," making it unsurprising that Western governments struggle to formulate strategies to deter attacks.

The study claimed that the "Guardian of Prosperity" coalition, led by the United States and the United Kingdom, has "deprived the Houthis of the gains they seek," adding that "Houthi attacks are essentially the culmination of the threats we have witnessed over the past 15 years."

The study addressed the Houthis' current weaponry, stating that it "represents a significant improvement compared to the weapons used by the militia in the early 2000s," adding that the Houthis possess "sophisticated missiles as well as relatively simple drones."

It stated that drones and missiles have instilled fear in shipping companies, requiring more advanced – and significantly more expensive – technology to thwart them.

The study concluded that the Houthis have suffered losses, stating that "the attacks have been largely unsuccessful," adding: "In reality, conventional armed forces would likely have ceased their attacks after such an increase in the cost side of the cost-benefit calculation. However, the Houthis have not only continued their campaign, but have also expanded it."

The study considered this "further illustrates how Houthi militias operate differently from conventional armed forces, as they use a different cost-benefit calculation."

From the Houthis' perspective, the study stated that "the benefit is not the number of ships destroyed or severely damaged, but the extraordinary global attention and power generated by the attacks."

According to the study, "the Houthis' capacity has dropped to about 50%, which is what we need to do to prevent them from using their coastline to launch attacks."

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