Following the announcement of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's death in an Israeli attack in Beirut's southern suburbs last Friday, questions have arisen regarding the implications for Iranian-aligned factions in the region.

Over the past three decades, Nasrallah emerged as a key figure in what has been termed the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition formed by Iran that includes various armed groups primarily in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Recently, under Nasrallah's leadership, this axis introduced the concept of a “Unified Front,” which refers to coordinated support and stances among its members against any threats to the coalition or the Iranian regime.

Experts believe that Nasrallah played a pivotal role in establishing all regional armed factions, exerting considerable influence over the axis and serving as the mastermind behind Iran's external operations in the Middle East.

Barran Press explores, through discussions with Yemeni and Arab researchers and politicians, the potential repercussions of Nasrallah's death on Iranian affiliates, who regard him as an indispensable spiritual and political leader.

Severe Disruption

Dr. Bashir Abdel-Fattah, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, stated in an interview with Barran Press that "Nasrallah's death will cause significant confusion," particularly for Hezbollah, which is the main support front for Hamas.

He posits that Iranian-aligned factions in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen play a "secondary role limited to skirmishes," while Hezbollah has been the main force. A decline in Hezbollah's power will directly affect all these fronts.

Potential Deal

Regarding Iran's stance on these developments, Dr. Abdel-Fattah speculates that "Iran will likely reduce support for its proxies in the region," as there are possibilities of a deal between Iran and the West and Israel.

He asserts that the "Unified Front" strategy will be hindered until the relationship dynamics between Iran, Israel, and the West become clearer after the upcoming U.S. elections. He suggests that Tehran could either achieve its goals and reap the rewards of this retreat, or it may be deceived and manipulated.

In the latter scenario, he predicts that Iran will seek alternatives for the leadership it has lost and restructure its proxies to pursue the same policies again if its hopes for understanding with the U.S. and Israel are dashed.

New Balances

Dr. Hind Abu Al-Gheit, a political science professor at Cairo University, notes, "Iran has shifted its policy from aggressive to a more defensive posture aimed at preserving its influence without risking regional interventions that could negatively impact its standing."

In a statement to Barran Press, she remarked that "the world is governed by a policy of no permanent friends or permanent enemies," highlighting the emergence of various powers in the U.S. arena interested in improving relations with Iran, despite ongoing crises between the two.

She added that negotiations over Iran's nuclear file and sanctions have not succeeded in weakening Iran or curtailing its regional influence. However, the U.S. may leverage Iranian influence in the future to bolster its own global power, potentially leading to a unipolar world.

Iranian Constraints

Lebanese political analyst Amin Bashir told Barran Press that the "Aqsa Flood" operation launched by Hamas on October 7, which he described as a "surprise" to Israeli occupation, has unveiled many issues.

He argues that Hezbollah's entry into this battle, which it called a support operation, failed to deliver the promised strong backing for Hamas.

Bashir explained that "Iran has made it clear that it does not want the war to escalate," putting Hezbollah in a predicament where it could not advance or engage in a large-scale war without Iranian approval. He emphasized that Hezbollah alone cannot initiate such a conflict.

A Sacrifice for Reconciliation

To understand Iran's stance, Bashir suggested examining the strategic shift within Iran, especially following the death of former Iranian President Raisi and the election of a new president who is more open to the West.

He referenced the new Iranian president's declaration that "they and the Americans are brothers seeking peace," suggesting that such statements would not occur without the supreme leader's approval.

Bashir concluded that this strategic change contradicts Hezbollah's long-standing ideology, which has historically labeled the U.S. as the "greatest Satan."

From these insights, Bashir posits that the question arises whether Iran has sacrificed Hezbollah, asserting that it was indeed Iran that offered Hezbollah as a "sacrifice" for reconciliation with the Western system to lift sanctions.

No Impact on Houthis

When asked whether Hezbollah's setback would affect the Houthis in Yemen, Bashir noted that the occupation's actions are tied to Netanyahu's plans and his exploitation of U.S. preoccupation with the upcoming elections.

He did not rule out Netanyahu's potential to target the Houthis in the time remaining before the U.S. elections, which is about 40 days.

A Crossroads

Political analyst Amin Farhan insists that "Nasrallah's death will impact the Houthis," stating that he was an "inspiration" for Iranian-aligned factions. He anticipates that their confidence will waver following his demise.

After this "major shift," Farhan believes the Houthis are at a crossroads: "They can either genuinely reach out for peace—which is unlikely as they are an Iran-directed militia—or continue on their current path, which is more probable."

If the Houthis persist in their stance, Farhan predicts they will operate with diminished morale, as Nasrallah's death may encourage the Yemeni population resisting the Houthis to rise against them.

He expects that the Houthi movement will weaken in the coming period under the pressure of setbacks faced by Iranian-aligned factions like Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran as the Key Player

Colonel Abdul-Basit Al-Bahr, a military spokesman for the Taiz axis, believes that the impact on the Houthis is fundamentally tied to Iranian will.

In a statement to Barran Press, he remarked, "If Iran wants the Houthis to play a role, they will; if it wants them silent, they will be." He further noted that Israel has targeted Lebanon because it knows that the source of missiles utilized by the Houthis originates from Lebanon.

Al-Bahr cited Israeli strikes in Yemen, asserting that they have not targeted Saada, the center of power, nor the workshops in Sana'a where drone technology is developed and manufactured.

He concluded, "It is evident that Israel aims to strike the interests of the Yemeni people in Al Hodeidah, while in Lebanon, it has targeted key Hezbollah positions." This suggests, according to Colonel Al-Bahr, that the Houthis will not be militarily affected by Hezbollah's situation unless there are developments involving the regional backers of both the occupation and the militia, namely the U.S. and Iran.