On December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria collapsed following a sudden offensive by opposition forces originating from Idlib in northwestern Syria. This unexpected downfall represents a significant strategic blow to Iran and its so-called "Axis of Resistance," which has long operated under religious banners, including the liberation of Jerusalem.

Political observers and analysts believe that this event will weaken Iran and its armed proxies in the region, prompting a reassessment of its regional policies, especially with the loss of both Hezbollah and the Assad regime, which were key components of its strategy.

In a report for “Bran Press,” Nafeh Al-Hamiri explores the repercussions of Assad's fall on the Houthi movement in Yemen, which is internationally classified as a terrorist organization and enjoys substantial Iranian support.

A Devastating Blow

Dr. Adel Dushila from Columbia University’s Middle Eastern Research Center stated that the Houthis are aware that the Iranian axis has suffered a severe setback, particularly with the deaths of senior Hezbollah leaders and the disruption of supply lines. This has created a climate of fear within the Houthi group.

Dushila noted that international and regional demands to diminish Iranian influence in conflict zones will likely increase, making Yemen a priority for the Arab coalition and major powers. This pressure could force Iran to seek political settlements or reorganize its strategies in the region.

He further asserted that Assad's downfall would reduce Iranian influence, potentially weakening Iran's strategy in Yemen and pushing the Houthis to pursue political solutions rather than relying solely on military confrontations.

New Power Dynamics

Ibrahim Jalal, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, remarked that the fall of Assad, following attempts to reintegrate him into the Arab fold, has resulted in a significant loss for the Houthis, Iran, and Hezbollah, who have lost a crucial ally in their resistance framework.

This situation is expected to weaken the Iranian axis and redraw the regional balance of power, possibly destabilizing security in other Arab capitals. Jalal cautioned that what had been dormant for years has quickly become a reality, with Sana'a observing Damascus's situation closely, fearing it might be next.

Diminished Support

Dr. Abdul Qader Al-Khilli, a political science professor at Taiz University, characterized Assad's fall as a strategic defeat for the Iranian axis, which may lead to the Houthis losing crucial political and moral support that bolsters their legitimacy and negotiation stances.

He believes that this change will prompt a reconfiguration of regional alliances against Iran and its proxies, resulting in heightened political pressure and international sanctions on the Houthis.

Al-Khilli noted that this could create uncertainty within Iran-aligned networks, including the Houthis, making them more susceptible to internal fractures and divisions.

Internal Erosion

Political activist Omar Al-Hamiri predicted a scenario resembling Syria, where individuals who joined the Houthis might abandon them. He warned that the Houthis could find themselves isolated, leading to forced surrender, or face a crushing defeat if they persist in confrontation.

He pointed out that the Houthis' reliance on repression and intimidation reveals their fears of collapse. Currently, they recognize they represent a minority in a limited geographical area, with many former allies distancing themselves as the group's true nature emerges.

Al-Hamiri believes this erosion will soon become evident, as there is a growing national consensus both within Houthi-controlled areas and in government-held territories on the necessity of dismantling the Houthi coup.

Adapting to Change

Jalal emphasized that Assad's fall signifies a loss of one of Iran's key regional allies, compelling Tehran to reassess its strategies amid increasing international pressures and sanctions. He suggested that Iran may struggle to maintain its traditional influence, particularly in Yemen, a central battleground in regional conflicts.

With Yemen's strategic location and the adverse effects of Houthi military operations on international trade in the Red Sea, Jalal warned that Iran's economic resources could diminish, especially given its already severe economic sanctions.

He predicts that maintaining influence will become more costly for Iran, particularly after the substantial investments it made in Syria, potentially leading to a reduction of its support for the Houthis.

Scenarios Ahead

Overall, Al-Khilli outlined several potential scenarios following Assad's fall. The first involves increased isolation and gradual collapse of the Houthis due to disrupted Iranian military and financial support, compelling them to yield to military pressures from the Arab coalition.

The second scenario suggests that despite losses in Syria, Iran may attempt to bolster the Houthis politically, which could escalate confrontations in Yemen through enhanced use of strategic weapons like drones and missiles.

A third scenario envisions a regional shift favoring the Yemeni government, significantly weakening Iran and allowing the Arab coalition and regional powers opposed to the Houthis to reorganize the Yemeni landscape. This could lead to intensified military operations against the Houthis alongside diplomatic efforts to reshape Yemen's political scene with a diminished Houthi presence.

Finally, Al-Khilli indicated that the power vacuum left by Assad's fall might invite new regional and international actors, such as Turkey, further complicating the political and military dynamics and delaying a resolution to the Yemen crisis.

In conclusion, the implications of Assad's collapse will be profound for the Houthis and Yemen, ranging from increased pressures on them to a restructuring of regional alliances. To maximize benefits from this situation, Al-Khilli urged the Arab coalition and Yemeni forces opposing the Houthis to capitalize on this moment of weakness by intensifying military and political pressures while focusing on diplomatic solutions for sustainable stability in Yemen.