On Saturday evening, July 20th, Israeli airstrikes targeted the Yemeni port city of Hodeida, striking fuel tanks, a power plant, and other infrastructure. The attack was a direct response to recent Houthi attacks against Israel, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict.

According to Houthi sources, the Israeli airstrikes resulted in the deaths of two civilians and injuries to 80 others. Many consider this the first such attack since the Houthis launched military operations against Israel in support of Gaza on November 21st of last year.

Following the airstrikes, the Houthis swiftly vowed retaliation, with their military spokesperson, Yahya Sarea, declaring that the group would respond to the "blatant aggression against Hodeida" and would not hesitate to strike vital Israeli targets.

Yemeni citizens are increasingly concerned that the Houthis will exploit the Israeli attacks on Yemeni soil to recruit more fighters under the banner of confronting Israel, similar to their strategy following US-led attacks. These attacks were launched in conjunction with Britain and other nations in response to Houthi targeting of commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Barran Press interviewed experts and analysts to assess the potential consequences of this escalation, including the likelihood of further Houthi attacks and Israeli retaliation, the potential for the Houthis to recruit new fighters, and the Houthis' capabilities to strike targets at such a distance.

Exploiting the Conflict

Military expert and analyst Brigadier General Mohammed Al-Kumaim predicted that Israel would exploit the Houthi attacks, starting with "all actions taken by the Houthis in the Red Sea, culminating in the recent attack on Tel Aviv."

In an interview with Barran Press, Al-Kumaim stated that "America and Israel are heavily exploiting this chaos," highlighting the "American militarization of the Red Sea under the pretext of defending Israel and protecting the region from any expansion and conflict." He added, "Now Israel is claiming victimhood in defending itself, just as the Houthis claim."

Al-Kumaim pointed out that one of Israel's justifications is the claim of confronting Iranian proxies and that they are defending themselves and continuing their ongoing battle. He noted that the Houthis have provided the Israeli entity with the necessary cover to continue its battle in Gaza.

Al-Kumaim stated that "Israel has conducted numerous operations in Syria and Lebanon, but neither country dared to retaliate because they fear for their interests. However, the Houthis continue to exploit and market their victimhood globally, garnering international sympathy."

No Harm to Israel

Regarding the effectiveness of the Houthi attacks, Al-Kumaim believes they have no impact on America or Israel. He cited the US response to Houthi strikes as evidence, stating, "The American reactions to Houthi strikes are the most ridiculous and foolish I have ever witnessed in all my years witnessing global conflicts."

He sarcastically added, "The Houthis are striking America with such barbarity, according to their claims, and America claims to be fighting a battle bigger than World War II in the sea, yet their response is like a theatrical performance. Why?"

A Strategic Asset

Al-Kumaim believes that the United States does not want to eliminate the Houthis and considers them a strategic asset. He asserts that the Houthis' continued existence benefits the US for several reasons, including their role as a thorn in the side of the Arabian Peninsula and their value as a propaganda tool.

He stated, "Therefore, I believe that the situation remains relatively simple for Israeli and American security. The Houthis have not crossed their red lines, so the responses will be minimal." He explained that "when the Houthis reach a point where they can harm America and Israel, we know that America and Israel will deal with the Houthi threat as they should."

Exploiting Yemeni Sentiments

Experts believe the Houthis are adept at manipulating Yemeni emotions. They utilize the "Death to America, Death to Israel" slogan to mobilize the population, leveraging the strong anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment prevalent in Yemen. This approach, experts argue, allows the Houthis to rally support for their internal conflicts.

The Houthis' Military Capabilities

Analysts downplay the Houthis' technological capabilities, highlighting the fact that Iranian missile and drone attacks against Israel have failed to reach their targets. They argue that the Houthis are merely a tool, utilizing Iranian-supplied weapons and relying on Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for expertise. The weapons employed, they claim, are rudimentary and lack sophistication.

Mutual Exploitation

According to Adel Al-Ahmadi, head of the Nashwan Al-Hemyari Center for Studies and Media, Israel benefits from these attacks by convincing its own population and the international community that it faces a genuine threat, justifying its military actions.

Al-Ahmadi predicts a limited Israeli response, considering the relatively low casualties, emphasizing that the Houthis killed and injured 13 Yemenis in Amran during their attack on Tel Aviv.

While the Houthis might attempt to exploit their attack on Israeli territory for domestic recruitment, Al-Ahmadi believes it will have a limited impact. The Yemeni people are already suffering under Houthi rule, and any perceived threat from Israel pales in comparison to the daily hardships they face.

Experts emphasize the need to clarify the nature of the conflict for the Yemeni people, highlighting that the real battles are being fought by the Houthis against the Yemenis themselves. The Houthis' use of external threats to fuel internal conflict must be exposed, preventing further manipulation and suffering.

A favor, not a hit

While some analysts downplay the Houthis' ability to reach Tel Aviv with drones, others see the incident as a strategic move by Israel.

"After every attack on a specific target against Iran and its militias, Israel leaves room for Iranian militias to respond within the rules of engagement," said Abdulslam Mohammed, head of the Ab'ad Center for Studies. "Yesterday, Hezbollah lost key leaders in an Israeli operation, leaving room for an Iranian-allied drone to reach near the US embassy in the heart of Israel."

Mohammed suggests that Israel might have intentionally allowed the drone to reach its target, highlighting a potential vulnerability in their defense systems. "Israeli analysts say a human error led to one of the four drones sent not being dealt with. It's as if Israel deliberately let the drone reach its destination without shooting it down."

He further points out the strategic implications of Israel's response, questioning why they chose to give the Houthis credit for the attack instead of Hezbollah. "While the Houthis claimed responsibility for the drone that hit Tel Aviv, killing at least one person, Avihay Adrai and his Zionist group quickly confirmed it. What is Israel's goal in giving the Houthis the victory, not Hezbollah? Even though the Iranian-Israeli rules of engagement assume that Hezbollah will be given the opportunity to retaliate with an operation with no cost or casualties."

Mohammed believes that the current situation reflects a new set of rules of engagement, where Israel and Iran are seeking to avoid escalation in the north. "Israel and Iran have agreed not to escalate in the Israeli north, so the new rules of engagement assume that the response will not come from Hezbollah. While Israel benefits from eliminating dangerous military leaders in Hezbollah, it forces Iran to respond with a weak response, this time giving the Houthis the honor, even though the group's drones cannot travel more than 2,000 kilometers while carrying explosives."

The attack is seen as a strategic win for Israel:

Mohammed believes that the Houthi attack served Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing international pressure. "Netanyahu is facing international pressure, and at the same time, the International Court of Justice has issued a series of rulings against Israel. The arrival of the drone near the US embassy is marketing Israel's interests to be at the top of the list of promises made by the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates."

He adds that Israel and Iran are competing for influence in the region, but within a controlled framework. "Israel and Iran are competing for influence in the region and are racing, but within a regulated and controlled framework through an agreement that makes this competition move from using the Palestinian issue to a stage of dismantling the region and sharing influence over holy sites and wealth."

Experts warn of potential escalation:

Military analyst Al-Kameem sees the Israeli airstrikes as a direct consequence of the Houthis' "bravado" and their lack of understanding of the situation. "We are waiting to see because we are still at the beginning. Are we waiting for the Houthi reaction to these strikes? And if the Houthis continue to adopt strikes against the Zionist entity, we also expect a violent Zionist reaction, because the Zionists are a criminal state and a malicious state, and they will bomb relentlessly and hit vital economic targets. They are claiming today that they are defending themselves."

He emphasizes that Israel is portraying itself as the victim, but their actions speak louder than words. "Israel says today that we are defending ourselves and claims to be the victim. I'm talking to you now and I'm hearing the same words from the Israeli military spokesman that he warned us with."

Al-Kumaim warns of potential escalation if the Houthis continue to target Israel. "The Israeli spokesman confirmed that Israel will strike relentlessly if the Houthis continue to adopt Iranian strikes. This problem is still in its early stages, we are waiting for the action and reaction."

Call for interventions
The head of the Abaad Center for Studies said, “With regard to the Houthis and their interventions, such as their announcement that they are behind the drone attack, although many military analysts believe that the drone was launched from another region close to the Mediterranean Sea, it may be behind Hezbollah and others.

He added, "The Houthis' declaration of their responsibility gave Israel an opportunity. Israel even said that the Houthis sent the drone because they had a bank of goals they wanted to implement, and here they carried out their first goal by striking the oil installations in Hodeida and the port of Hodeida. Thus, the Houthis invoked the Israeli aggression against Yemen in a way that carries a lot of meaning behind it." Among the accusations against Iran that it wants to move the battle towards the end of the Gaza battle, there are expectations of a war with Lebanon. Iran wants to spare Hezbollah from this war.

He said, "Iran is now pushing Israel and the Houthis into confrontation far from Lebanon or even far from its areas of influence and borders in these regions and in a distant region in the Red Sea, and also the regions of Yemen because it believes that Israel can be exhausted there and this also achieves the interests of Israel, which is looking to return with military force." The Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

“Mohammed” believes that the Iranian-Israeli performance is directed at one place, which is transferring the war to Yemen, and the Houthis are only one of the tools to achieve this goal, it seems that the rules of engagement between Israel and Iran have become clear, which is not to clash on the Israeli northern front with southern Lebanon and go to settle scores. Far from it, which is what is happening in Yemen.”

He explained, “This indicates the Houthis’ actual stupidity in handing over the country’s interests in favor of proxy wars between Israel and Iran. Rather, Yemen has become a direct battlefield between Iran and Israel, meaning that they have made Yemen a purely Iranian interest.”