Recent events in Abyan Governorate, southern Yemen, have brought armed groups vying for dominance to the forefront, while state authorities, security forces, and the military have completely disappeared.

The Houthis, designated as a terrorist group, are the latest of these factions. Sources speaking to Barran Press indicate that the group has returned with force, seeking to control the governorate alongside al-Qaeda and the Southern Transitional Council (STC).

Five years ago, the STC began displacing the internationally recognized Yemeni government from Aden, declared the temporary capital, before completely seizing control in August 2019. They also gained control of the neighboring governorates of Abyan and Lahj.

With the absence of state security and military forces, al-Qaeda and the Houthis found open space to operate in Abyan, alongside the STC. While a conflict exists between them, they are united in their opposition to the Yemeni government and the presence of the state.

A Conflict of Allied Enemies

Politicians and researchers, in separate interviews with Barran Press, considered the al-Qaeda attack on an STC military base in Abyan's Modayyah district on August 16th, killing 16 soldiers and injuring others, as the most prominent manifestation of the presence of armed groups and the absence of state authority in the governorate.

At the beginning of January 2023, the STC announced the formation of five support and reinforcement brigades, claiming it was to complete the cleansing of Abyan Governorate and secure it from the threat of terrorist groups.

Simultaneously, they announced the launch of the "second phase" of Operation "Eastern Arrows" to combat what they called "terrorist groups" in the governorate. The first phase had been launched in August 2022, just months after the STC's inclusion in the country's leadership through its participation in the Presidential Leadership Council and its partnership in the Yemeni government.

A Natural Outcome

Regarding recent developments, a resident of Abyan's Lawder district, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told Barran Press that these events are a "natural outcome" of the governorate's experiences and the marginalization and dismantling of state institutions.

He added that STC formations, including the Security Belt, have targeted and suppressed citizens. He spoke of a campaign carried out by the Security Belt forces, the main force behind "Eastern Arrows," against tribes in Lawder areas in recent months. He explained that the STC aimed to "control the people and label them with accusations first, as they lack a base of support in these areas."

Regarding the presence of al-Qaeda, he clarified that they are not present in villages, gatherings, or citizens' homes. Most of their members are known, their locations are known, and how they move is known. Therefore, he believes that the "STC and al-Qaeda are connected in some way," as he believes that "each has an interest in the other's existence."

A Striking Houthi Presence

Alongside the STC and al-Qaeda, local sources have reported a notable Houthi presence in Abyan Governorate in recent times. They have been actively engaging in recruitment efforts, targeting individuals from all walks of life, particularly those belonging to "Hashemite families" or known as "Sayyids."

Sources indicate that the Houthi leader, Saleh al-Janidi, appointed by the group as Abyan's governor, is coordinating tourist trips for social figures and activists from various Abyan districts to Sana'a, the capital under Houthi control.

According to sources, each trip includes 10 individuals who are being recruited through various methods, including enticements of money, weapons, and fictitious positions within the governorate.

Sources have revealed that the group is utilizing Hashemite families in Abyan to facilitate their recruitment efforts. They allocate significant funds for recruitment and send those recruited to Sana'a and Sa'ada.

Security and Military Movements

Sources have reported security and military movements by the Houthis in Abyan Governorate in recent months, including drone strikes and intensified drone flights.

Additionally, sources say the group has established "new brigades," recruiting dozens of Abyan residents.

Regarding the stances of other groups, sources have stated that the Houthis maintain good relations with both the STC and al-Qaeda, describing their coordination as "reaching the point of mutual service."

Managing the Organization

Regarding the significance of recent events and the emergence of al-Qaeda at this time, Yemeni researcher Dr. Adel Dushailah stated that "there are those who are moving this organization on both security and political levels."

Dushailah believes, in his interview with Barran Press, that "al-Qaeda is not as powerful as it once was," pointing to its defeat in 2012 in Abyan Governorate itself at the hands of forces under Brigadier General Mohammed al-Somali.

Winners and Losers

Researcher Dushailah believes that "the return of the organization today is a bad sign and a reshuffling of the cards," stating that "the primary beneficiary of al-Qaeda's actions is the Houthi group, internationally classified as a terrorist organization."

The biggest loser, according to the researcher, is "what remains of the fragile state institutions, as the Houthis will attempt to present themselves as the ones fighting al-Qaeda."

Dr. Dushailah, a researcher in political and social affairs, emphasized the need to "understand that the Houthi group is the other side of al-Qaeda, although their methods of killing Yemenis differ from those of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization."

He stated that "al-Qaeda's terrorist ideology can be confronted through security and military means if state institutions are restored, and it can be easily defeated. However, the Houthi group's ideology, the other side of al-Qaeda, which hides under the guise of the Ahl al-Bayt, requires the restoration of the political center of the state, Sana'a, and the return of the Yemeni republic."

The biggest fear, according to researcher Dushailah, is that "the al-Qaeda card will be exploited at the regional level to destabilize what remains of Yemen's security margin," thus opening the door to "re-internationalizing the Yemeni crisis to confront these terrorist groups."

In any case, he says that "we cannot escape this predicament except by restoring the republican system and its institutions."

Intersecting Interests

Researcher and journalist Fahd Sultan confirmed that "there is an intersection of interests between the Houthi group and the Southern Transitional Council," explaining that "the Houthis are in coordination with al-Qaeda, or at least there is an exchange of information between the two parties."

He stated that "the relationship between the STC and the Houthis is not new, especially since the group previously released several al-Qaeda leaders," mentioning "the appearance of one of the figures on more than one occasion alongside Houthi leaders."

Sultan believes that the STC may benefit from creating chaos, particularly to avoid the issue of the disappearance of "Ali Ashal al-Ja'adani" in Aden last June, especially with the popular movement demanding the revelation of his fate.

In addition to the above, Sultan said that Abyan Governorate is a pivotal governorate with significant security, military, and political influence. Therefore, playing with this governorate, especially at this time, shuffles the cards for everyone.