On December 8, 2024, Syria awoke to an unprecedented morning as millions witnessed opposition forces enter Damascus following their swift capture of Homs, with little resistance from the Syrian Army.

Alongside the opposition's advance through the capital, reports confirmed the departure of ousted President Bashar al-Assad, who fled on a small passenger plane. The plane's destination remained unclear, leading Reuters to speculate it may have crashed near Tartus. Russian media suggested that Assad sought refuge at the Russian Hmeymim Airbase in Latakia.

In the regime's final days, Assad faced significant challenges, particularly as opposition forces approached Hama, a critical gateway to Damascus. In a desperate bid to avoid his impending downfall, Assad engaged in intense international communications.

Pleas to Turkey

According to diplomatic sources, Assad attempted from the outset of the opposition's offensive to persuade Turkey to intervene and halt the assault. He reached out to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, who has strong ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, hoping to revive negotiations. Assad justified his earlier reluctance to engage with Turkey, citing distrust and a sense that an opposition military offensive was imminent.

Sudani noted that Turkish officials showed little willingness to intervene and that international sentiment was shifting towards abandoning Assad. Consequently, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Ankara to advocate for de-escalation, but these efforts failed, as Turkey held the Assad regime responsible for the escalating violence due to its refusal to engage in political processes.

Appeals to Iraq

By early December, the Syrian regime recognized that Hezbollah would only provide limited support near the Lebanese border. This realization prompted Assad to seek assistance from Iraq, hoping to convince Baghdad to send Popular Mobilization Forces to aid his cause. However, Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh found little openness in Iraq, which preferred to distance itself from external conflicts to avoid political repercussions.

Astana Process

On December 7, the 23rd round of the Astana talks, likely the last, took place in Doha with representatives from Ankara, Tehran, and Moscow, alongside Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq. Iranian officials proposed a ceasefire and a dialogue between Assad and the opposition. However, Turkey rejected the idea of controlling the advancing opposition, insisting that any resolution required a political transition.

Discussions in Doha included plans for a transitional governing body, reinforcing Iran's belief that Assad's regime was nearing collapse. This prompted a shift in Iranian rhetoric, as officials began acknowledging the "Syrian opposition" in their communications.

Russian Offers

Just one day before the opposition's entry into Damascus, Russia reportedly offered Assad protection and safe passage out of the country if he agreed to a transitional government. Assad declined, asserting his ability to continue fighting. Meanwhile, military units around Damascus became unresponsive to commands, sensing a shift in Russian support towards removing Assad.

According to Damascus security sources, Assad's departure was sudden and kept secret, even from the head of the regime's national security, General Kifah Malhim. There are unconfirmed reports suggesting that he might currently be at Hmeymim Airbase or that his plane may have crashed.

On the same day, Iraqi security sources reported the arrival of a high-ranking Syrian official in Iraq, believed to be Maher al-Assad, Bashar's brother, before opposition forces took control of the al-Bukamal border crossing.

Russia is currently coordinating with southern operational command to stabilize Damascus and ensure the continued functioning of state institutions, led by Ahmad al-Auda, commander of the Eighth Brigade.