It appears that war is once again looming over Yemen, with no remaining alternatives to prevent its return—except through war itself. Achieving peace with the Iran-backed Houthis seems increasingly unlikely without a decisive military confrontation, much like the conflicts unfolding in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and Syria. A similar scenario could also emerge with Shia factions in Iraq.
This viewpoint is not only echoed by the Houthis’ opponents within Yemen but is also shared by regional and international experts and analysts.

Marib on the Brink: Houthi Escalation Threatens Fragile Truce
Current Situation
The fragile truce that has held in Yemen for over two years is now on the verge of collapse as the Iran-backed Houthis escalate military activity, particularly around the strategic city of Marib. Military sources describe these maneuvers—including recruitment drives, ideological mobilization, and the deployment of thousands of fighters—as "dangerous and suspicious." The Houthis have reinforced their positions with new trenches and artillery placements along Marib’s southern, western, and northern fronts while increasing drone attacks, seemingly aimed at provoking government forces into renewed conflict.
The Strategic Importance of Marib
Marib is a focal point in both war and peace. Historically, it was the capital of the ancient Kingdom of Sheba, and today, it remains vital due to its oil, gas, electricity, water resources, and fertile agricultural land. The city also serves as a refuge for nearly three million displaced Yemenis, making its stability essential for maintaining internal peace and social cohesion.
Why Are the Houthis Escalating?
Increasingly isolated domestically and internationally, the Houthis are growing anxious over the looming enforcement of a U.S. executive order by President Donald Trump, designating them as a "Foreign Terrorist Organization." This classification could bring severe political, military, and security consequences. Analyst Murad Batal Shishani explains that such a designation could justify military action against them while also opening the door for strategic negotiations.

Houthi War Tactics
Historically, the Houthis have employed tactics reminiscent of Iran’s strategies during its war with Iraq in the 1980s—using waves of poorly trained recruits to deplete enemy forces before sending in professional fighters. This approach, which failed for Iran, appears equally ineffective in Marib. Local media reports indicate that government forces have successfully repelled multiple Houthi advances, while intelligence units have tracked their movements and defensive fortifications.
Expert Military Analysis
Brigadier General Khaled al-Qarni notes that recent Houthi military actions are heavily influenced by regional shifts, particularly the change in U.S. administration and its potential political and military implications.

Ali al-Mamari, former governor of Taiz, suggests that the Houthis are bracing for military maneuvers as diplomatic engagements between Yemeni and American military leaders intensify. He argues that Iran may be pushing the Houthis toward military escalation to redirect regional tensions toward Yemen.
Meanwhile, the Israeli newspaper Maariv predicts that a tighter naval blockade and enhanced international intelligence coordination could set the stage for a decisive battle before broader actions against Tehran.

Marib’s Resistance
Despite years of Houthi offensives, Marib remains a stronghold resistant to their ideological influence. Journalist and political activist Abdullah Abu Saad urges local tribes to support the national army and resist any Houthi attempts to sow division among them.
In 2021, a major Houthi offensive on Marib—backed by Iran and Hezbollah—was decisively repelled with the support of the Saudi-led coalition. Military analysts warn that if Iran pressures the Houthis into another military campaign targeting Marib, they are likely to suffer significant losses.

Experts note that, like other Iranian-backed militias, the Houthis are vulnerable to exposure and uncertainty. Their greatest fear is not only external military intervention but also the possibility of a popular uprising fueled by internal discontent and the consequences of their actions. If the Houthis continue down the path of war, they may find themselves facing not just an emboldened Yemeni military but also increasing regional and international pressure.